Part II was a brief history of some of the dynamics of the Middle East. Those underlying aspects of the region are rooted in antiquity. Today, I will bring you up to date on more recent circumstances.

 Stepping Out from the Shadows

For the last fifty years or so, Israel and Iran have been fighting each other but primarily from the shadows. Concurrently, Iran’s fight was also against what they call the “Big Satan,” which is America—the preeminent symbol of western civilization, which they hate. They hate the West for many reasons, but one is their constant interference in the Middle East. Of course, Israel is the “Little Satan.” So, the fight went like this: Iran would attack Israel in some covert way, or through one of their proxies, and then Israel would respond.

In the 1970s and 80s, Iran attacked Israel or the West either using assassination, kidnapping, hijacking of commercial airliners, or some combination thereof. Later, they included or switched to suicide bombers, or blasted public places like buses, underground railroads, prominent restaurants, or discothèques in big, historic European cities.

Israel usually responded with comparable assassinations, bombings, or missile attacks. They would even covertly invade other countries to free Jewish hostages, such as the famous Raid on Entebbe.[i]

Changing technology means both sides now employ any combination of cyber and drone attacks, in addition to some of those tactics already mentioned. They also use their own intelligence operations. For example, Israeli intelligence, known as the Mossad, is responsible for collection of vital information used to protect Israeli sovereignty; covert operations, such as the Entebbe raid; and conducting counter-terrorism operations. When the Mossad strikes Iran, for example, they can do it from across the border in Kurdish Iraq, or directly from within Iran’s borders. They operate from the shadows and can be deployed anywhere.

Before October 7, rocket strikes, bombings, secret missions—all of this was so normal that we barely heard about it, or when we did, we just shook our head. But just know that this is the environment within which the average Israeli lives. One survivor of the Nova Festival massacre, and an American Jewess, awoke that October 7 morning to several rocket launches overhead from Gaza. Her Israeli friends told her that she needn’t worry. “Rockets fly over all the time. It will be over in a few minutes.” Not that day. Perhaps they were too accustomed. Finally, they ran off and their lives were spared.[ii] But that morning was one thing.

What about April 13?

Releasing the Wolves

Earlier, on April 1, an Iranian Republican Guard (IRG) general and one of his senior officers were meeting with a high-ranking representative of Hezbollah in a building next door to the Iranian embassy in Damascus, Syria. This Iranian general was responsible for all Hezbollah rocket and missile firings from southern Lebanon into northern Israel. Israel never confirms what the world thinks they did, but it is highly probable that two American-built Israeli F-35 Lightnings (fighter aircraft, named Adir by the Israeli Air Force, which means “Mighty One”) took off after dark and flew north. It wasn’t long before they released precision munitions on the building where these three officials were meeting. Iran claimed Israel attacked their “consulate.” Therefore, according to international law, it is their territory. Others say that it was just a “building” that was next door to the Iranian embassy, therefore not under the protection of Iranian sovereignty. It’s no matter, though.

About two weeks later, on April 13, Iran released the wolves. About 320 of them. Ballistic and cruise missiles, and drones for one amazing night of fireworks. And that number doesn’t count the weaponry that immediately exploded upon launch or dropped out of the sky and crashed somewhere on an Iraqi sand dune, way short of their intended targets. Overall, their only “victory” was hitting a few outbuildings on the Israeli air base from which the F-35s flew to attack the Damascus-based IRG generals. Iran claimed they destroyed the air base and its runway. The reality was Israel was still using that air strip that entire night. So, no. For Iran, it’s supposed victory was only symbolic. But it made great TV on Arab and Persian frequencies.

The end result was Israel, along with the Americans, British, French, and even Jordanian and Saudi air forces shot down 98% of the projectiles that night. It was a complete defensive victory with only a small number of civilians injured from intercepted missile debris that fell from the night sky. The final score: Israel – 313, Iran – 7, and Iran’s score is very generous.

But think about this. Can you imagine what it must have been like with over three hundred missiles incoming and the chaos that created over Israeli airspace? Then count the aircraft and missiles employed to counter the strike. That’s a lot of hardware zipping around…all with different trajectories and targets. Yet, there wasn’t any confusion. The digital capability to individually target each enemy munition, and then send a specific missile or aircraft to take it out was truly a miracle of American and Israeli technology. This digital airspace allowed Israel to repel the attack and embarrass Iran for their clear lack of any significant capabilities in the process. They did so while not losing any airmen to any intentional or errant missile strikes. That is utterly amazing!

Of course, now Iran knows what they’re up against and how Israel and its allies so easily defended against their onslaught. But they also may have gained valuable intelligence for the next time they openly go on the offensive.[iii]

Because Iran directly attacked Israel, the ayatollahs gave Benjamin Netanyahu no choice but to counterattack. They did so on Thursday, April 19. They sortied six American-made F-15 Eagle fighter jets (Israeli Air Force F-15 Ra’am, Hebrew for “Thunder”) that flew over Syrian airspace and fired one missile into Iran’s Isfahan province, a location about 210 miles south of Tehran, the Iranian capitol, and only twelve miles from the location of the Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center. It was shot deep into Iranian territory while evading all radar and other defenses. This Israeli missile carried a specific message: that Iran is very vulnerable because of the antiquated nature of their defensive capability. They destroyed one Russian-made S-300 missile launcher not far from the nuclear development facility. Had they chosen, Israel easily could have hit both.

Point taken. The temperature dropped. Iran backed away. All-out war averted.

Why is this so important? There are several reasons. First, there is always evidence of Iranian influence that creates the ability for attacks on Israel: boats loaded with weapons supplies leaving a southern port in Iran for Yemen to resupply the Houthi rebels; incoming missile and rocket attacks on US troops along the Iraqi border with Jordan and Syria from “miscellaneous” proxies within Iraqi territory; and even a group of IRG generals in Damascus meeting with a high-ranking official of Lebanon’s Hezbollah. In that latter case…the generals are no more.

Second, through their overt April 13 missile attack, Iran confirmed that they really have been the ones pulling all the strings from the shadows. Hezbollah, Palestine Islamic Jihad, and other groups all get their direction and armaments from Tehran. The exception to the rule is Hamas. They are Sunni Muslims, not Shia. Therefore, they get all the benefits of Iranian cash, weaponry, training, and resupply, but they do not answer to the Shiite ayatollahs. They operate on their own. Of course, everyone knows about these linkages, but Iran always maintains “plausible deniability.” In every case, their rhetoric distances the regime from their own proxies. And, well, the West pretty much buys it because it is convenient to do so and confirmed by their inaction, desire to appease, or cowardice. But no more. Iran can’t hide behind words any longer.

They released the wolves, and, by doing so, slipped out of the shadows and into the open. From their own territory, they attacked Israel by firing ballistic and cruise missiles and drones over Iraqi territory. Although the Hamas attack was their own decision, Iran openly confirmed their support of the October 7 invasion with the April 13 attack and set up a new phase in this fifty-year conflict.

What is this new phase? Before answering that question, we must first discern the lessons learned from these two April events. These will be presented in Part IV.